AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Turns Positive on Slow Planting Pace

Corn futures are steady to 1 cent per bushel lower this morning. They ended Monday with most contracts 3 to 4 cents lower, as the 2019 contracts out to Sept hit contract lows. Losses in the wheat complex pressured the market, along with slow corn exports. Weekly data from USDA showed 1.353 MMT of corn shipped in the week of April 18. That was 14.33% larger wk/wk but still 22.15% below the same week last year. After the close USDA indicated that just 6% of the US corn crop was planted, on the low end of estimates. That is just half of the average pace for this date but 1% faster than last year. Last year turned out OK on yield, so the market isn’t getting excited yet.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Fractionally Higher to Begin Tuesday

Soybean futures are steady to fractionally higher after seeing 3 1/2 to 4 cent losses in the front months on Monday. Meal futures were down 70 cents/ton, with May soy oil 10 points lower. The Export Inspections report indicated 382,298 MT of soybeans shipped in the week that ended on 4/18. That was 19.73% lower than the previous week and 19.07% below a year ago. The weekly Crop Progress report showed that just 1% of the US soybean crop has been planted as of Sunday, lagging the 2% average. It’s early. Ahead of Wednesday’s Stats Canada report, analysts estimate 2019 canola acreage to total 21.8 million acres, which would be down 1 million from last year. Argentina’s soybean harvest is now thought to be 30% complete. Producers don’t like the price, with plenty of global competition as it comes out of the field. Brazil has harvested 92% of the crop in that country.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Posts New Lows and Tries to Bounce

Wheat futures are trading UNCH to 2 3/4 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday buying this morning. All three markets are in plus territory. They closed with 5 to 14 cent losses on Monday. KC and MPLS posted new lows in several contracts. The 7-day QPF shows heavy rainfall in parts of TX and OK over the next week. After the Monday close, NASS showed winter wheat conditions improving 2% to 62% gd/ex and up 5 points on the Brugler500 index to 366. That’s the highest rating since 2010 for this date. The crop was 9% headed, vs. the 18% average for this date and 12% last year. The spring wheat crop was 5% planted. That was well below the 22% average but above 3% from last year. Wednesday’s Stats Canada report is expected to show 24.8 million acres of all wheat for 2019, slightly higher than the 27.73 million from 2018. Durum is expected to be down 1 million acres to 5.2 million acres according to published trade estimates.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Down on COF But Cutouts Higher

Live cattle futures were down 80 cents to $1.10 on Monday, with front month April down a tick. This was fallout from the Cattle on Feed report. Feeder cattle futures were 72.5 cents to $1.425 lower on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 14 cents to $145.97 on April 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices ignored the COF with its 2% more cattle on feed and were higher on Monday. Choice boxes were up 83 cents at $234.48, with Select boxes $2.15 higher @ $222.64. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head. The monthly Cold Storage report from NASS on Monday showed frozen beef stocks as of March 31 at 450.657 million pounds. That is down 4.92% from February and a 2.87% lower than last year. ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Digesting Cold Storage Stocks

Lean Hog futures settled with 70 cent to $2.125 losses on Monday. China confirmed ASF cases on Hainan Island, which is more than 200 miles offshore and had been thought to be relatively safe. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 39 cents from the previous day @ $81.02 on April 18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 62 cents in the Monday afternoon report, at $87.86. The loin and belly primals were reported lower. The national average base hog was $79.89, down $1.05. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday was 324,000 head, as some plants experienced some down time. Frozen pork stocks at the end of March were reported by USDA at 610.129 million pounds. That is slightly lower than the same month last year and a drop of 0.9% from February. Weekly pork exports reported by FAS (typically less than half the total) were up 16% in March vs. the previous year. That helped draw down stocks despite higher production. Belly stocks were 58.788 million pounds.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Lower As USD Recovers

Cotton futures are trading 66 to 87 points lower this morning. They were 17 to 22 points higher in most 2019 contracts on Monday, with nearby May down 12 points. The dollar was weaker and crude oil was up $1.82/barrel, supporting cotton via synthetics. The dollar has firmed this morning. After the closing bell, USDA showed US cotton acreage 9% planted, a 2% increase from last week. That was even with the 5 year average and slow vs. the 10% last year. The Cotlook A Index was up 50 points at 88.25 on April 18. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 68.88, effective through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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