AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Seeing Lower Prices Despite EIA Report

Corn futures are down by 1 to 2 cents in the nearby contracts. Ethanol production (and implied corn consumption) saw its biggest wk/wk increase in daily production since April, as the EIA reported 996,000 bpd. Daily production is still below 1 million barrels, but the 4 week trend is an average increase of 13,250 bpd wk/wk. Ethanol stocks decreased by 697,000 barrels for the week ending 10/18 to 21.364 million barrels. The Midwest was the only region to show a stocks increase. The increase in production coupled with a decrease in stocks is indicative of a higher use ratio wk/wk. Estimates ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report show 450,000-850,000 MT in total sales. Some early surveys have US acreage for 2020 at 95 million, with some responses close to 100 million. There is still plenty of time for the price ratios to shift.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.87, down 1 cent,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.98 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.05 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.11, down 2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Mostly Higher at Midday

Soybeans futures continue to hold their ground, higher by as much as 3 cents for Jan contracts. Soybean meal is up by $2.01/ton at Wednesday’s midday, while soy oil is lower by 21 points. The USDA reported a private export sale of 128,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 19/20 delivery. Traders are awaiting a USDA confirmation of yesterday’s rumored Chinese 10 MMT TRQ of American soybeans. A 10MMT TRQ implies that purchases beyond the 10 MMT quota are subject to tariffs, but receive a lower or zero rate up to that quota. Traders expect the weekly Export Sales report to show a wide range of 0.8-1.6 MMT in soybean sales for the week that ended on 10/17. Soy meal estimates are 100,000-300,000 MT, with soy oil at 0-25,000 MT. Mato Grasso in Brazil is forecasted to finally get some needed moisture to assist soybean planting and development.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.36 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.51 1/4, up 3 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.62, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.70, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $309.00, up $2.10,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.64, down $0.21

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday Wheat is Mixed

Wednesday Wheat is Mixed

Wheat futures are mixed so far Wednesday. Chicago futures are noticing a gain in most nearby contracts. Kansas City wheat is lower for Dec and Mar, but May is higher at midday. Nearby MPLS wheat futures contracts are lower so far. Prior to Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report, analysts expect to see 300,000-600,000 in 19/20 booking of wheat for the week that ended on 10/17. Taiwan is tendering for 88,900 MT of US wheat, with the deadline for offers on Thursday. Algeria purchased ~600,000 MT of optional origin wheat in their recent tender on Wednesday. Traders estimated the price at $227-229/MT, higher than the last tender in September. The purchase is optional origin, but French wheat is likely due to freight costs. Ukr Agro Consult reported that Russian wheat exports are down 12% yr/yr.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.19 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.21, down 1/4 cent,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.37, down 2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Futures Higher so far

Live cattle futures are up by as much as $1.50 for Wednesday’s midday. Feeder cattle futures are also higher, by $0.95 to $1.15 in the front moths. The 10/21 CME Feeder Cattle index dropped $1.03 to $144.93. USDA released the Cold Storage report last night, with September 30 beef stocks at 464.186 million lbs. That is down 8.47% from last year and was also 1.22% smaller than August. Analysts on average expect the USDA’s Cattle on Feed report (Friday) to show that Oct 1 on feed numbers at 11.272 million head, down 1.22% from last year. Wednesday’s midday wholesale boxed beef prices are higher, with the Chc/Sel spread reversing and widening by $1.94. Choice boxes are up by $2.46 to $223.39, and Select boxes are up $0.50 to $198.58. The USDA weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter was 237,000 head through Tuesday. That is up 2,000 head from last week but 1,000 fewer than last year. Asks are $110 in the South so far this week, with no bids to report. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw 131 of the 231 head sold at $109, with feedlots passing on offers of $105 on the remaining 100 head.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $110.200, up $0.325,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $115.200, up $1.500,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $120.175, up $1.075,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.725, up $1.025

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.450, up $0.950

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $140.950, up $1.150

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs are Mixed at Wednesdays Midday

Wednesday’s lean hog futures are mixed. USDA’s Cold Storage report, released after the Tuesday close, showed 598.894 M lbs of frozen pork stocks on September 30. That was 1.6% above last year, but lower than August by 1.3%. Frozen belly stocks for September were the highest they’ve been for that month since 1971. The CME Lean Hog Index dropped by 6 cents on Oct 18 to $65.47. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value from USDA is down by $0.32 at midday, at $75.78. The national average base hog for 10/23 was 65 cents lower to $55.21. USDA estimated hog slaughter for the week is 980,000 head through Tuesday, which is 31,000 head more than the same Tuesday last year. Pork prices in the Chinese market have risen enough to cause ripple effects in their economy, their inflation rate is now up to 4%.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $66.300, up $0.800,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $75.275, down $1.000

APR 20 Hogs are at $81.725, down $1.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday Cotton Seeing Gains

Cotton futures are seeing gains from 30 to 53 points in the nearby contracts so far on Wednesday. USDA reported that 2.84 million RB of cotton had been ginned as of Oct 15, a 1.557 million RB increase from Oct 1 and 17.3% larger than the same date last year. Rain is expected for parts of Central TX to AL over the next few days. The Cotlook A Index had given back 50 points on Oct 22, at 75.20 cents/lb. The AWP, which will be updated Thursday, is currently at 55.26.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 65.13, up 46 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.95, up 53 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.56, up 43 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 66.95, up 30 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com