Grains Report 02/21/2020

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for February USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed February 1 102.3 101.8- 103.0
Placed in January 101.5 97.8- 103.5
Marketed in January 101.0 97.6- 101.6
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Feb. 1 in Jan in Jan
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.1 100.2 101.1
Allendale Inc. 103.0 101.6 97.6
HedgersEdge 102.3 101.6 100.5
Linn Group 101.8 97.8 100.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 102.7 103.5 101.0
NFC Markets 102.3 101.6 101.6
Texas A&M Extension 102.4 102.0 101.3
U.S. Commodities 102.2 102.2 101.0

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Feb 21
For the week ended Feb 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 346.3 60.1 22255.1 21483.7 5045.0 331.0
hrw 166.1 6.2 8335.2 7290.3 1852.1 87.1
srw 16.1 31.5 2218.4 2792.8 364.1 56.7
hrs 78.4 22.4 6387.3 6127.3 1488.5 105.4
white 78.7 0.0 4486.0 4796.2 1191.9 20.9
durum 7.0 0.0 828.2 477.0 148.4 61.0
corn 1249.2 1.0 25008.5 38316.0 12357.3 1259.9
soybeans 494.3 3.4 33446.9 36762.8 5041.4 319.9
soymeal 169.4 0.0 7685.1 8378.5 3562.5 87.3
soyoil 42.0 0.0 683.4 498.1 253.0 0.5
upland cotto 235.3 141.2 13432.7 11855.9 7189.5 1284.1
Pima cotton 9.5 0.0 450.0 509.4 227.1 35.3
sorghum 49.6 33.0 1222.7 728.6 248.3 33.0
barley 0.1 0.0 48.9 58.2 15.5 30.5
rice 106.6 0.0 2644.8 2213.6 791.9 0.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower in consolidation trading. There was not a whole lot of buzz in the Wheat pit yesterday as most of the news seemed to affect other markets more. The strong US Dollar against world currencies was negative for demand ideas that are already trending lower due to weaker prices in Russia and Europe. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. Sales of US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace. The US is participating in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe. The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the far south today. Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 574 March. Support is at 555, 553, and 549 March, with resistance at 567, 571, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 488 and 506 March. Support is at 471, 463, and 459 March, with resistance at 487, 490, and 496 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 545 and 560 March. Support is at 529, 525, and 520 March, and resistance is at 538, 541, and 543 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed after an uneventful session. USDA forecast the [planted Rice area at 3.1 million acres which is roughly in line with trade expectations. It showed a tight supply and demand scenario for this year but this was also expected. The futures market suggests that the March to May time frame could be the tight time for US and western Rice. Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1299 March. Support is at 1324, 1316, and 1308 March, with resistance at 1352, 1357, and 1374 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Corn continues to take its cues from Wheat and Soybeans price action as there is very little going on for Corn. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand is improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 298, 293, and 288 March, and resistance is at 301, 305, and 307 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little lower. Talk of Chinese inquiry into the price and availability of US Soybeans was still around, but the US Dollar moved sharply higher against the Real of Brazil yesterday and made Brazil Soybeans the product of choice for any international buyer. China said it will make tariff wavers available to its domestic industry for the purchase of US Soybeans. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting at the end of this month when the waivers are scheduled to take effect, but US Dollar strength will make that hard. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is about to get some very timely rains.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 889, 885, and 878 March, and resistance is at 900, 903, and 910 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed Support is at 291.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2910 and 2870 March. Support is at 2980, 2930, and 2870 March, with resistance at 3050, 3100, and 3170 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly lower in range trading. Nearby months were unchanged to higher. The strong action of the US Dollar was a little supportive. Palm Oil was lower on ideas of weaker demand. Demand from India has been hardest hit due to a political problem between the two countries. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much. Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports now total 744,320 tons this month, from 765,601 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2670, 2760, and 2860 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +50 Mar
+155 Mar
+100 Mar +57 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +54 Mar
+105 Mar
+60 Mar

April +54 May
+105 May
+46 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 425.66 -33.64 Mar 2020 dn 3.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 475.00 7.00 Mar 2020 up 0.10
Basis: Vancouver 486.00 18.00 Mar 2020 up 0.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 667.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 665.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 642.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 627.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 670.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 667.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 645.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 637.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 630.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 682.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 655.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,700.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 195.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=M200.1930)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 118,567 lots, or 4.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,555 3,581 3,552 3,552 3,553 3,563 10 336 887
May-20 4,100 4,137 4,085 4,136 4,137 4,110 -27 110,547 121,180
Jul-20 4,122 4,140 4,113 4,121 4,129 4,123 -6 9 51
Sep-20 4,056 4,086 4,040 4,083 4,077 4,059 -18 7,432 21,162
Nov-20 3,967 3,990 3,967 3,990 3,993 3,984 -9 9 264
Jan-21 3,980 4,000 3,963 4,000 3,987 3,981 -6 234 1,332
Corn
Turnover: 264,160 lots, or 5.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,876 1,882 1,868 1,879 1,875 1,874 -1 1,119 9,978
May-20 1,904 1,913 1,901 1,912 1,907 1,908 1 184,719 612,412
Jul-20 1,929 1,939 1,928 1,937 1,933 1,935 2 10,904 55,906
Sep-20 1,952 1,962 1,950 1,961 1,956 1,958 2 64,007 299,806
Nov-20 1,973 1,980 1,972 1,978 1,974 1,978 4 1,326 4,280
Jan-21 1,985 1,993 1,984 1,990 1,987 1,990 3 2,085 8,055
Soymeal
Turnover: 714,457 lots, or 19.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,641 2,652 2,632 2,632 2,639 2,643 4 1,420 7,056
May-20 2,664 2,682 2,659 2,661 2,665 2,668 3 465,240 1,297,902
Jul-20 2,695 2,711 2,691 2,693 2,698 2,698 0 55,878 80,049
Aug-20 2,733 2,747 2,729 2,731 2,737 2,735 -2 1,696 2,645
Sep-20 2,751 2,765 2,746 2,748 2,753 2,753 0 179,326 1,242,679
Nov-20 2,773 2,789 2,771 2,774 2,778 2,778 0 2,978 2,013
Dec-20 2,805 2,811 2,797 2,797 2,802 2,803 1 63 306
Jan-21 2,815 2,823 2,799 2,801 2,812 2,806 -6 7,856 25,484
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,310,875 lots, or 72.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 5,424 5,546 5,424 5,504 5,488 5,498 10 23 78
Apr-20 – – – 5,692 5,692 5,692 0 0 3
May-20 5,506 5,554 5,474 5,490 5,436 5,514 78 1,176,612 384,713
Jun-20 5,476 5,476 5,476 5,476 5,386 5,476 90 1 5
Jul-20 5,488 5,488 5,336 5,390 5,424 5,416 -8 17 303
Aug-20 5,500 5,500 5,484 5,484 5,410 5,492 82 2 3
Sep-20 5,450 5,496 5,434 5,456 5,414 5,466 52 131,840 116,444
Oct-20 – – – 5,426 5,426 5,426 0 0 5
Nov-20 5,564 5,564 5,564 5,564 5,472 5,564 92 1 5
Dec-20 5,620 5,620 5,492 5,492 5,494 5,528 34 7 159
Jan-21 5,368 5,424 5,364 5,412 5,356 5,406 50 2,372 5,243
Feb-21 – – – 5,412 5,412 5,412 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 500,909 lots, or 29.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 9
May-20 5,928 5,968 5,928 5,942 5,888 5,946 58 423,227 373,262
Jul-20 6,000 6,032 5,984 5,984 5,936 6,008 72 4 421
Aug-20 6,078 6,078 6,078 6,078 6,034 6,078 44 1 4
Sep-20 6,060 6,084 6,044 6,068 6,010 6,066 56 75,349 197,710
Nov-20 – – – 6,104 6,104 6,104 0 0 215
Dec-20 – – – 6,212 6,156 6,212 56 0 8
Jan-21 6,178 6,208 6,174 6,188 6,138 6,196 58 2,328 11,781
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.